The prediction business is a tough one. Not everyone can be Nate Silver. The Mayans, we feel it is safe to say now, wrongly predicted the end of the world (and if you are reading this from Bugarach, we apologize).

So, as we look forward – we certainly hope that Gartner’s forecasts won’t share the same fate as the Mayans’. According to this report, the top IT analyst firm predicts that over $230B will be allocated to Big Data through 2016.

When you peel the onion though, it’s really hard to estimate the size of the Big Data Analytics Market – a real shame – because, in my humble opinion, “Analytics is the Killer App” of Big Data.

If we apply some logic to Gartner’s number thought, we can try and figure it out. When I take Gartner’s forecast for Big Data ($232B through 2016), factor in the fact that, everybody – including the most respected Wikibon – agrees that roughly 25% of that number is software, you’d land somewhere in $58B through 2016.

The whole $58B number can’t be attributed to Analytics only but if you then consider it as a high bar and compare it now it to the IDC Market Size for Business Analytics – $50.7B by 2016 – you’re getting close.

What do you think about this forecast now?

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